Mint Insight: Analyzing the impact of an election year on the stock market

We are hurtling headlong into a politically heavy election calendar in India in the coming months, which will bring with it lots of mind-numbing volatility. Does it pay to stay on the sidelines? According to Chakri Lokpriya, Managing Director, TCG Asset Management, which manages close to $3 billion, there is no direct correlation between the political dispensation and stock market movements. Lokpriya goes on to quote history--going back to 2004, when the BJP was voted out, and the market was in despair, falling 6.95% in the succeeding three months. Thereafter, India’s stock markets delivered 16.4% CAGR in the following four years. Fast forward to the eve of the BJP’s historic win in 2014, the market was up 31.4% in anticipation of good times, and then drifted back in 2015 and 2016 delivering -4.1% and 3.0%, as policies were not implemented and non-performing loans of banks were not resolved. Corporate India functions despite its political maelstroms.